Ghalibaf Warns No One Will Sell Oil in the Region if Iran Cannot
TEHRAN/WASHINGTON — Iran’s senior negotiator Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf warned on Wednesday that no country in the region would be able to sell oil if Iran were prevented from exporting its own crude, sharply escalating Tehran’s rhetoric as fighting and maritime disruption continue around the Strait of Hormuz.
Ghalibaf said the security of regional energy infrastructure could not be separated from Iran’s own security, delivering a message that appeared directed at the United States as well as Gulf oil exporters whose shipments depend heavily on the strategic waterway.
“The equation of this war is clear: either all or none,” Ghalibaf wrote in a post on X, according to Reuters. He added that if Iran’s security was not guaranteed, no infrastructure in the region would remain safe.
The warning came as the United States continued military operations against Iranian targets and commercial shipping faced growing danger in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Reuters reported that the confrontation had already disrupted crude exports from the Gulf, lifted fuel prices and forced some tankers to reconsider their routes.
Reuters Report on Ghalibaf’s Warning and the Escalating Iran Crisis
“Either All or None”
Ghalibaf’s statement represents one of Tehran’s clearest warnings that any sustained effort to stop Iranian oil exports could trigger a broader threat to energy production and transportation across the Gulf.
His remarks suggest Iran is attempting to establish a deterrence equation: if Iranian tankers and export terminals remain under pressure, neighboring states should not expect their own oil infrastructure and shipping routes to operate normally.
The statement did not identify a specific facility or country as a target. However, the Gulf contains some of the world’s most important oil terminals, refineries, pipelines and liquefied natural gas installations.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Bahrain all depend to varying degrees on secure maritime access through or near the Strait of Hormuz.
Ghalibaf also argued that security in the strait depended on the removal of American forces, directly challenging Washington’s position that its military presence protects international navigation.
The United States says the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and has accused Iran of attacking commercial ships and attempting to impose unacceptable restrictions on global trade. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly said that agreements concerning the strait do not authorize missile or drone attacks against commercial shipping.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Remarks on Commercial Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, it is only around 21 miles wide, but it carries an extraordinary share of the world’s energy trade.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data show that oil flows through the strait averaged about 20.9 million barrels per day during the first half of 2025, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.
The strait is also critical for liquefied natural gas. Around 20% of global LNG trade passed through Hormuz in 2024, with Qatar accounting for most of those shipments.
This concentration means even a limited interruption can rapidly affect:
- Global crude prices
- Gasoline and diesel costs
- Marine insurance premiums
- Tanker charter rates
- Asian energy security
- Inflation expectations
- Airline and freight costs
U.S. Energy Information Administration: World Oil Transit Chokepoints
Related Analysis: Global Energy Crisis Deepens as Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Oil Markets
Oil Markets Face Renewed Supply Pressure
The latest Iranian warning comes as energy markets are already dealing with reduced Gulf exports and rising uncertainty over regional shipping.
Reuters reported that the conflict had transformed an expected global oil surplus into a projected deficit of around 1.5 million barrels per day for 2026, according to a poll of analysts. The same report said Gulf supply remained well below pre-war levels despite a temporary recovery during an earlier period of reduced tensions.
The International Energy Agency said global oil production recovered by 4.1 million barrels per day in June as some traffic through Hormuz resumed. Nevertheless, output remained 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, and the forecast depended heavily on renewed de-escalation.
The IEA has since warned that a full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is essential to prevent further deterioration in global energy security.
International Energy Agency July 2026 Oil Market Report
Related Coverage: U.S. Tightens Iran Blockade as Oil Climbs Above $95
Iran’s Strategy Appears Designed to Spread the Economic Cost
Iran’s warning reflects a longstanding strategic calculation: Tehran may not be able to overpower the United States conventionally, but it can threaten economic disruption across a region central to global energy supplies.
By linking its own oil exports to those of neighboring Gulf states, Iran is effectively arguing that economic pressure cannot remain confined to Iranian territory.
Such a strategy could increase pressure on Gulf governments to push Washington and Tehran toward negotiations. Those governments may support the protection of international shipping while also fearing that continued escalation could expose their ports, refineries and desalination plants to missile or drone attacks.
The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf economies have invested heavily in diversifying their economies, but energy exports remain central to government revenue and economic stability.
Dubai and other regional commercial centers also depend on secure air routes, shipping, tourism, logistics and financial confidence.
Related Analysis: Dubai’s Economic Resilience After the Iran-U.S. Conflict
The U.S. Blockade Raises the Stakes
The United States resumed a naval blockade targeting maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on July 14, according to U.S. Central Command.
CENTCOM said the blockade applied to ships transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas, while other regional maritime traffic would continue to receive U.S. support.
Washington has described its military campaign as an effort to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels and threaten civilian mariners.
CENTCOM said its recent strikes targeted Iranian military command centers, coastal surveillance facilities, air defenses, missile launch sites, drone capabilities and maritime assets.
U.S. Central Command Announcement on the Renewed Naval Blockade
Iran, however, portrays the blockade as an unlawful effort to eliminate its oil revenue while allowing rival producers to continue profiting from the same regional waterways.
Ghalibaf’s “all or none” formulation appears intended as a direct response to that imbalance.
Commercial Shipping Faces Growing Danger
The maritime threat is no longer confined to Hormuz.
Reuters reported that Houthi forces aligned with Iran had threatened shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another vital route connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Several tankers reportedly changed course as shipping companies assessed the growing danger.
The combination of insecurity in Hormuz and the Red Sea creates a potentially severe problem for energy and container shipping.
U.S. Central Command: Eleventh Night of Strikes Against Iran
A vessel avoiding the Red Sea may have to sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, increasing travel time, fuel consumption and freight costs. But vessels loading Gulf oil cannot easily avoid Hormuz unless the crude is transported through limited overland pipeline capacity.
The U.S. Maritime Administration currently lists active security advisories covering both Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf and Houthi attacks around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.
U.S. Maritime Advisory on Threats to Commercial Vessels in the Persian Gulf
Could Iran Halt All Regional Oil Exports?
Iran possesses missiles, drones, naval mines, submarines, fast-attack boats and coastal systems capable of creating serious danger for commercial shipping.
However, completely and permanently stopping every oil shipment in the region would be difficult. U.S. and allied military forces could escort vessels, strike launch sites and attempt to clear mines.
Gulf producers also operate several pipelines that bypass Hormuz, including infrastructure connecting Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea and UAE production to the port of Fujairah.
But these alternatives cannot fully replace normal shipping through the strait. Their capacity is limited, and pipelines and export terminals could themselves become vulnerable during a wider regional confrontation.
The more realistic risk is not necessarily a total physical closure lasting indefinitely. It is a sustained environment of uncertainty in which tanker owners, crews and insurers judge the route too dangerous or too expensive.
Even sporadic attacks can sharply reduce traffic without Iran having to maintain a formal blockade.
Related Analysis: Iran’s Strategic Shift in the Strait of Hormuz
Diplomacy Remains Possible but Positions Are Far Apart
U.S. officials have said Washington remains willing to negotiate, but they want Iran to commit publicly to ending attacks on commercial ships and allowing all shipping lanes to operate without tolls or restrictions.
Iran has resisted surrendering control over the strait and argues that regional security cannot be guaranteed while U.S. forces conduct strikes and blockade Iranian trade.
This creates a difficult diplomatic circle.
Washington wants maritime security before easing military and economic pressure. Tehran wants the pressure removed before guaranteeing unrestricted maritime passage.
Ghalibaf’s warning may be intended partly as negotiating leverage. By raising the possible cost for every Gulf exporter, Tehran could be trying to convince regional governments and major Asian oil importers to demand a settlement more favorable to Iran.
China, India, Japan and South Korea are particularly exposed because of their reliance on Gulf energy.
The longer traffic remains disrupted, the more likely those countries are to increase diplomatic pressure on both Washington and Tehran.
Risks for the Global Economy
A prolonged confrontation could produce economic consequences far beyond the Middle East.
Higher oil prices raise production and transportation costs across nearly every sector. Airlines pay more for jet fuel, shipping companies face higher bunker costs and manufacturers pay more to transport raw materials and finished goods.
Consumers eventually experience those increases through higher prices for gasoline, food, travel and imported products.
For the United States, rising fuel prices could complicate the administration’s economic agenda. For Europe and Asia, the impact could be even greater because of their dependence on imported energy.
Higher inflation may also make it more difficult for central banks to reduce interest rates, slowing economic growth and increasing borrowing costs.
The conflict has therefore become not only a military and diplomatic crisis, but also a test of the global economy’s ability to withstand a prolonged disruption at its most important energy chokepoint.
Conclusion
Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf’s warning that no one will sell oil if Iran cannot do so marks a significant escalation in Tehran’s public position.
The message is designed to convince Iran’s rivals that isolating Iranian exports will not produce a contained economic outcome. Instead, Tehran is threatening to spread the consequences across Gulf energy infrastructure, commercial shipping and the wider global economy.
Whether Iran possesses both the capability and willingness to enforce such a threat remains uncertain. But it does not need to stop every tanker to produce serious disruption. Continued missile attacks, drone threats, naval confrontations and insurance restrictions could be enough to keep oil prices elevated and shipping flows unstable.
The central question is now whether Washington and Tehran can find a diplomatic formula that separates freedom of navigation from their wider military confrontation.
Without such an agreement, Ghalibaf’s “all or none” warning could become the defining economic doctrine of the conflict—and the Strait of Hormuz could remain the most dangerous pressure point in the global energy system.